Nobody Knows Anything
The season of sell side year-ahead investment outlook reports
The screenwriter William Goldman wrote Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, the Princess Bride, All the President’s Men, and many other hits. But he is remembered today for his critique of the Hollywood studio system and their ability to pick winners. He famously said, “Nobody Knows Anything,” which is just as relevant to any creative or innovative endeavour as it is to the movie industry. If only a major investment bank would publish a one-pager with those three words!
One of my pet frustrations around this time of year, when I was a research analyst was the congestion caused by the year-ahead outlook pieces. This is also the time of year when you realize how many strategists and economists the investment bank you work for has. There would be hundreds of pages from the multi-asset strategist, equity strategist, economists of every jurisdiction under the sun, and eager stock research industr…
